The most important learnings from recruiting in Bands 4-6, featuring a GBE Expert Hub Player Report on Kilian Nikiema

Day 10 of the 12 Days of GBE Expert Hub Content

Dec 13, 2024

“Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads…”

We approach the wild lands with trepidation, but, like David Livingstone going out into uncharted territory, sometimes you can find something more beautiful than you could possibly imagine.

Whilst we may not be intrepid explorers here at The GBE Expert Hub, far too interested in paperwork and regulations here, we can still identify raw talent and things of beauty when we see them, whether that is in the data or on the screen.

Down the years, scouts have made their clubs millions or brought them the talent to be successful from far-flung unknown markets, and whilst it is probably true that in today’s shrunken world there are no such things as complete unknowns, there are still lesser-known and less-competitive markets for clubs with smaller budgets.

The EFL and Scottish scenes are awash with its own domestic talent, and there’s no way that it should be ignored or pushed aside. The top players from the academy system should always have the opportunity to make the grade as a professional. However, it is also the case that almost all players are well known, the highest rated talent goes to the bigger budgeted teams, and therefore, there must logically be a place in the market for those clubs who potentially can’t afford that top talent, but, could replace it with some top foreign talent for the same price or less.

Bands 4-6 are often the leagues that domestic clubs will go to for a potential risk, an “outside-of-the-box” signing. In some cases it is a move to be made early by clubs who have faith in their talent identification, Brighton spring to mind as an example.

Looking back over the last decade of recruitment from more unusual markets, the FA and Home Office will probably feel like their regulations have been a job well done.

One of the goals of the regs was to protect the development of young English talent by cutting down on the number of players coming into the game that weren't necessarily much better than what was being produced in the domestic youth system. Whilst this isn't meant to single out the leagues in Band 4-6, whom, as we will soon see, have produced some of the world's best players, but often clubs would chance their arm, often under agent influence, on players would never work.

The number of players coming into the UK from Band 6 has lowered dramatically

The history of recruiting from Bands 4-6

The Premier League were certainly quick out of the box in terms of talkng advantage of the regulation changes.

Whilst the new restrictions should've meant less Band 4 activity post-Brexit regulations, there was actually the highest influx of Band 4 transfers in a single season, and, indeed, more Band 4-6 transfers in total as well.

This hasn't remained the case though, and, indeed the PL share of the total set of transfers has diminished over time.

This seems unusual to me. Why, after the introduction of ESC in 2023, which should make recruitment in these areas easier, in theory, have such an opposite impact. Perhaps in the Premier League ESC has been so sparsely usedby the Premier League clubs because they are frightened of losing their slots or not using them correctly.

I suspect that it is because they are perhaps just not finding the quality of players that they need to make an impact in the top level of world football.

Championship clubs used to bring in players from all over the world. Indeed, they were very much the driving seat behind Band 6 transfers in particular, so it must've felt like a greater issue to EFL clubs when the Brexit regulations came into play to cut down their options by a huge amount.

Indeed, the last three seasons are amongst the lowest five in terms of total Band 4-6 transfers made in the EFL.

There has been more Band 5 activity recently though, which could be down to the ESC regulations. It has been noticeable how many Japanese and South Korean players have been brought into England in 2024, and those leagues were added to Band 5 in 2023 alongside the ESC changes. It has certainly caught the attention of The Athletic in this fine piece on that exact topic.

Band 4: Europe's Central Band

Band 4 is the first real mix-up of leagues.

There are the Central European leagues like Switzerland, Austria & Denmark, but also, the second tiers of France, Spain, and Germany are in there as well. South America has representation in the form of Colombia's top flight, but this has been a very rarely used destination as of yet.

Of course, Band 4 clubs who participate in Europe are prime GBE targets, but it is ESC which is really at play here. Anyone who plays a game in a Band 4 league is eligible for that.

Looking at the top transfers into England from Band 4 over the last decade brings some interesting talking points:

Why has the Ukraine league been so popular for transfers into England?
RB Salzburg absolutely nailed their strategy of buying young and selling into the big leagues.
How many of these transfers have actually been successful? Sadio Mané a big standout in terms of success.
There has been a real variety of PL clubs taking a big deal in the Band 4 leagues, ten different ones in the top ten
Three African players in the group - has Africa made any gains from that?

Band 5: The home of the new additions

In a similar way to when a new team or franchise is born into a league system, they have to start at the bottom and work their way up.

Whilst there is no published advice or evidence to a meritocracy to the bandings, it is tempting to see Band 5 as the little brother of the crew with the lesser European leagues such as Poland, Sweden, Norway, Serbia, as well as Serie B from Italy, itself a complete omission from the bandings until 2023.

Japan and South Korea came into this band in 2023 and this season's addition has been the A League in Australia.

ESC has been super important to this band. The necessity to have played senior or junior domestic football in a Band 1-5 league means that being banded in any way is important for potential recruitment to England.

Interesting points from the top ten fees paid:

Brighton have worked hard in this banding and have not been afraid to invest big sums to try and make it work, they appear four times in the buying club list
Hardly any of these players have played a decent number of Premier League matches
Eight of the top ten are teens, with the others being 20 and 21, selling young pays for the foreign clubs
Serbia show up as a real talent hotbed in this banding
Many clubs and leagues depend on this investment from the Premier League to turn a profit and keep going

Band 6: Hey Ya

Yes Band 6 is the band of outcasts. All the leagues not deemed bandy enough end up in the scrapheap of the hundreds of leagues all over the world who will surely never see a points based system GBE player, despite the presence of some really interesting talents residing here.

Point to note:

EFL League One and League Two, as well as the Scottish Championship, are all technically Band 6 leagues. This may not seem important, but when the likes of Tyler Bindon of Reading come to want to move on into the Championship in January, it actually becomes very relevant for his extension to his GBE.

Interesting points when studying the top Band 6 fees paid:

The source leagues are REALLY mixed - from Belgium's second tier to Saudi Arabia to Paraguay
Fees tend to be much lower, 6m Euro was the 10th largest fee paid
Five teenagers amongst the ten - early talent ID still alive and well in the world
Brighton the only team to feature twice on the buying side of things, never afraid to put money on a potential risk to see the upside

As we have discussed in detail above, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of players who could do a really great job improving teams and squads in the EFL.

One of whom, especially according to our scout, Sam Hutchinson, is Burkina Faso international goalkeeper Kilian Nikiema.

Now, unlike the other reports that we have released over the last two weeks, Nikiema doesn’t yet qualify for a work permit in the UK. He plays for ADO Den Haag in the Dutch second tier, which is a Band 6 league, so he doesn’t qualify for an ESC in that way, but he is currently one competitive international appearance away from qualifying on an ESC.

This means that he is not a target for UK clubs this transfer window, but probably will become available between now and the summer 2025 window. This is just to illstrate that we are constantly monitoring interesting players and tracking when EFL/SPFL clubs should be prepared to strike.

GBE Eye Match Report

Biographical Details

Name: Kilian Nikièma

Age/D.o.B: 21 (22.06.04)

Citizenship: Burkina Faso/Netherlands

Position(s): GK

Club: ADO Den Haag

Height: Approx 188cm

Preferred foot: Left

TM Market Value: £250K

Contract: Expiry: 30.06.2025 - APPROACHING END OF CONTRACT

Current wage (FM24 estimate): £420 pw

Status

GBE Status:

ESC Status: FAIL - NEEDS 1 MORE INTERNATIONAL APPEARANCE

Match Info

Observed: 29th November vs FC Emmen (Eerste Divisie) - moderate difficulty

Final score: 2-1

Shape: 4-2-3-1 (vs 4-3-3)

Brief match report: ADO Den Haag started the match brightly and took the lead in the first seven minutes.

However, FC Emmen managed to equalise with their first attack after conceding. Kilian Nikièma and his defenders were at fault for failing to assertively deal with the danger in the penalty area, giving away a cheap goal. Despite this set back Den Haag dominated the remainder of the match eventually regaining the lead in the second half.

Match report

Effectiveness of role

Nikièma had very little to do in terms of shot stopping. He made a mess of the opposition’s goal, failing to claim a loose ball in the box, which he allowed to trickle through his legs into the back of the net. The only other effort on target Nikièma faced he dived to his right and ensured he held onto the ball, preventing the opposition’s attackers from capitalizing on a rebound.

When his side had possession he always provided a supporting angle for his teammates, allowing them to play the ball to him when they faced pressure. Nikièma was tasked with being direct with his distribution, trying to find his side’s attackers. However, he did have the ability to play short when the option was available.

Nikièma played his part in helping his side see out the game. He would take his time at set pieces and was intelligent in directing his kicks towards the corners of the opposition’s half.

Physical attributes

Nikièma stands around 6ft 1 and has a well developed frame. His height gave him no real aerial advantage when defending crosses into the box. This was clearly seen at corner kicks where many of the opposition’s players had a height advantage over the keeper. Despite this, FC Emmen failed to direct any crosses towards him. Nikièma demonstrated a good level of pace over a short distance when he had to charge out and get to the ball before the opposition could pounce on it.

Technical skill

Nikièma had limited success when attempting to find teammates from goal kicks. Many of these long passes failed to reach the intended target, allowing the opposition to easily win them. He had excellent accuracy and distance when he kicked the ball out of his hands, often finding his teammates with ease from these situations. His accuracy also extended to clip passes he played to his side’s wingers or full backs. Nikièma demonstrated he could use this technique when playing passes to both sides of the pitch. He also wasn’t phased when having to play passes with his weak foot, still managing to get adequate accuracy and distance. He rarely looked to play penetrating passes along the ground into the feet of his midfielders. However, the one time he did attempt to play this type of pass it wasn’t convincing and almost saw him giving the ball away in a dangerous area.

Decision making under pressure

Nikièma had a great understanding of what decision he had to make when he was on the ball. He would always be aware if the opposition were pressing high, helping him to decide to play a longer ball to prevent giving possession away in and around the penalty area. Equally he didn’t panic under limited pressure and would happily pass to one of his defenders providing a supporting angle.

When he was pressed intensely he was able to direct his first touch away from the pressure and then play a composed pass. There were also a couple of situations when his teammates failed to put the adequate weight on their back passes but Nikièma was quick to the ball and cleared the danger, not taking any chances.

Psychological & Social

Having made a mistake early on, it was impressive that Nikièma didn’t let it affect him. He didn’t show any sign that he was lingering on his previous error and appeared fully focused. His focus was impressive throughout the game as there were long periods when he wasn’t involved. Despite this he didn’t once lose concentration and continued to carry out his role efficiently.

Nikièma was excellent at scanning his surroundings, ensuring he was aware of his position in relation to the goal as well as identifying any opposition players lurking in and around the area.

Although he was one of the youngest players on the pitch he still showed the necessary ability to communicate with his defenders. He gave instructions on who to mark and urged his defence to get higher up the pitch when the ball was cleared.

Any Other Business

I believe Nikièma has the current ability to play for a mid range club in EFL League 1. He’d especially suit a team that uses their goalkeeper in a sophisticated build up fashion as he is very comfortable on the ball.

This is his first full season of senior football. He has plenty of room to develop. This is why I have confidence he could reach the standard of a Championship player.

Further evaluation of Nikièma’s shot stopping ability and competence at dealing with crosses must be made to gain a full understanding of the player.

Verdict

Key strengths

Ability to deal with personal mistakes
Comfortable when pressed
Accuracy from a variety of passes

Risks to mitigate

Doesn’t have the height to command the box aerially
Poor accuracy and distance from goal kicks

Current UK level recommendation

L1 - Mid range League 1

Potential UK level recommendation

CH - Mid range Championship