The most important learning from recruiting in Bands 1-3, including GBE Expert Player Report on Yassin Oukili
Day 9 of the 12 Days of GBE Expert Hub Content
The reminder of the GBE bands is up here for a very good reason. It is time to delve into the banded leagues to establish some interesting trends and golden rules about recruiting from particular bands of leagues.
The first golden goal of recruitment from anywhere is that talent can be found anywhere and everywhere. In my opinion, it is quite a foolish move to rule out certain areas or leagues, even though there is likely to be some evidence to suggest that certain leagues are better than others to recruit from.
By all means we should take findings from research on board, otherwise this entire blog would be pointless, but football is still a human game with human decsisons affecting the outcomes, so no matter how much data support is given to a particular scenario, the results will be unpredictable as a result of the human element.
As I climb back down from my soapbox here, it is still important to look into what can be learned from the past as regards to recruitment. The best way to avoid mistakes is to study them, whether those mistakes were yours or someone else’s.
The GBE Expert Hub has studied the minutes played by recruits from all over the world, for every transfer into the Premier League and the Championship, and whilst this information is probably a touch too valuable for a free article(!) it is suffice to say that Ian Graham’s old adage that if a club can get 50% of their recruitment right is ambitious when recruiting from certain leagues according to historic data.
Recruitment from Band 1-3 History
As you will know if you have been following the series of articles so far, we have a full data set of 2014-2024 transfers, so we can see how trends have been going for a decade.
The key dates to bear in mind with all of these analyses are COVID hitting in 2020 and then the GBE regulations coming into force in 2021.
We already know from previous work that non-domestic went up after the GBE regulations came into force, and here we can see the breakdown in terms of where the players came from, within Bands 1-3.
Obviously, the money in the Premier League generally attracts the best talent. Those players often already reside in the better leagues, so it is unsurprising that the majority of recruitment in Bands 1-3 for the Premier League actually comes from Band 1. It is, of course, also the case that GBEs are easily won by players in Band 1, either via the international autopasses (many of the players will be full internationals for established FIFA nations) but also the points system is biased towards Band 1.
Having said that, if the bandings had been applied historically, the number of players coming in from Spain, Italy, Germany, and France hasn’t really changed too much over the decade.
The effect of the GBE regulation changes can probably be seen most in the increase in Band 3 transfers. Brazil, Argentina, and MLS are now more accessible given this status, whereas, pre-Brexit, the work permit regulations were such that the player needed to be a full international to move to the UK.
Point to note:
There are no transfers from the Mexican top tier in the data. It is a really interesting quirk of the recruitment data that no Premier League club (or any other English club) has bought a player directly from Liga MX since Enner Valencia and Jefferson Montero moved to West Ham and Swansea respectively in 2014.
So, although the Liga MX is Band 3, and open for business in that way, it is not a market that anyone is actively using.
Speaking of transfers outside of the Premier League though, here is a breakdown of the activity in the EFL Championship from the last decade.
Band 3 is fairly conspicious by its absence, only eight transfers all told in 10 years. It is clear to see that Band 2 is the most natural shopping ground for the Championship clubs.
A quick look at the summer just gone sees that Nottingham Forest invested in the highest number of players from Bands 1-3, and spreading their business around across those markets.
Wolves, Chelsea, and Southampton were the other clubs to buy from all three bands.
Brentford were the only club not to buy from Band 1 in the Premier League.
Band 1: The Land of Giants
The Big Five as they are often known, represent the biggest market for the English clubs.
Over 1BN Euro was spent by the Premier League into the other Big Five leagues in 22/23 and 23/24. “You may take our players, but you will never take our….financial solvency” may well be what William Wallacino is shouting from an enclave in Northern Italy as the Premier League slowly drains the best talent from the other major leagues in Europe.
The summary above is of the highest transfer fees spent by Premier League clubs in Band 1 over the last decade.
Key talking points include:
Serie A extracted big fees from established stars
Bundsesliga tend to sell younger talent to the Premier League
Ligue 1 is only represented once in the top ten
Man Utd are the team to look to pay for top talent most regularly
Liverpool and Tottenham are the top six members not to appear on the Buying Team list
Band 2: Where the Championship goes to spend their money
As we saw in the summary above, we saw that the Championship tends to recruit a lot of its players from this banding. Success stories from that recruitment are the likes of: Gustavo Hamer by Coventry, Joel Piroe by Swansea, or Sondre Tronstad of Blackburn Rovers.
However, the Premier League do still use these leagues extensively. The key time for Band 2 recruitment was in the summer of 2022 when Enzo Fernandez and Darwin Nunez moved from Benfica into the Premier League, and also Antony was bought by Manchester United from Ajax.
The table below demonstrates the dominance of the Portuguese league in Band 2. The reasons for this aren’t particularly clear, perhaps the Portuguese league’s connection to South America and the players that they get from there could help.
Perhaps it is that the likes of Benfica, Sporting CP, and Porto are trusted as finishing schools for the Premier League.
Other talking points from this set of transfers include:
The sheer dominance of the summer 2022 transfer window is clear, with five entries in the top ten
25yo is the oldest player in the list, Bruno Fernandes and Luis Diaz were both this age at the time of their moves
Ajax is the only non-Portuguese club in the top ten - why?
There are no Dutch, Belgian or Turkish players in the list despite the data set only including these countries’ leagues - is this an issue for those countries?
It highights the importance of early age recruitment by the clubs in these Band 2 leagues as the vast majority of these players have been purchased from their home countries
Antony?!
Band 3: The Land of the Brave
By far the least used of the Bands 1-3, Band 3 is a potential land of opportunity for both Premier League and Championship clubs.
The doors are beginning to open. This is clear from the chart above, and the way that Chelsea, Nottm Forest, and Wolves have used the market could be encouragement to many others to attempt to shop in this market.
The FA and the Home Office did seem to want to encourage this more global approach by the way that they structured the bandings and the points system. It is still more difficult to sign players from these leagues on a GBE but it is still possible, and, with the introduction of ESC, clubs could go down this route as well.
There are a number of success stories from the recent experiments in Band 3. Jhon Duran has made a real impact this season after his move from the MLS, Julian Alvaraz made Manchester City a big profit after helping secure the treble, and Joao Gomes is playing most minutes for Wolves and is more valuable now.
Other interesting talking points to emerge from the above:
The fees paid in Band 3 have been much lower than the other bands
Gabriel Jesus’ transfer from 2016 remains the highest fee paid directly from a Premier League club to a Band 3 club
No Liga MX
Only one defender in the top ten, and he hasn’t yet played a PL minute
Half of the players are teenagers - player care must be an important factor here
Brazilian clubs have received six of the top seven fees in the data set - Palmeiras in particular have done very well out of the Premier League
There are plenty of interesting individuals in Bands 1-3, many of whom will qualify directly for GBE. Every player who plays a minute in Band 1-3 will automatically get ESC as well.
Here is a player that has their contract expiring at the end of the current season and has caught the eye of Craig Bradley.
Biographical Details
Name: YASSIN OUKILI
Age/D.o.B: 23 (03.01.2001)
Citizenship: Morocco / Netherlands
Position(s): CM
Club: RKC Waalwijk, Netherlands (Band 2)
Height: Approx 195cm
Preferred foot: Right
TM Market Value: £800K
Contract: Expiry: 30.06.2025 - *APPROACHING END OF CONTRACT*
Current wage (FM24 estimate): £1,500 pw
GBE Status: Pass
ESC Status:
Relevant Data
AWRSS Best Role: Presser/Defensive Screen
AWRSS Best Characteristics: Height, Defensive aerial dominance, Physical presence (defending), one-on-one defending
Match Info
Observed: 29th September 2024 vs Ajax (Eredivisie) - high difficulty
Final score: 0-2
Shape: 4-2-3-1 (vs 4-3-3)
Brief match report: RKC were toothless against Ajax and only managed three shots at the visitors goal all match. However, they did put up a spirited defensive performance and it took Ajax until the 76th minute to break the deadlock.
Ajax went on to score a second goal deep into added on time.
Match report
Effectiveness of role
Oukili played in a box-to-box midfield role and a lot was expected of him. At times Oukili was the deepest midfielder, tasked with breaking up play. But in possession, Oukili was often the furthest advanced RKC player on the pitch.
Physical attributes
Oukili has great physical qualities. He stands at approximately 6’5 and his height is advantageous for him in aerial duels. At defensive set-pieces he can zonally mark the near post and wins lots of first contacts. Oukili has moderate acceleration, but his long striding, powerful running style means he covers plenty of the pitch quickly once he gets up to top running speed. Oukili has strength to match his size and is good at using his upper body and long legs to protect the ball.
Technical skill
Oukili is a good ball carrier. Visually, he can look languid because of his frame and running style but he progresses play well by breaking the press with a sharp turn. His passing style is safe and he generally sticks to small yardage passes.
Decision making under pressure
Oukili remains calm and unflustered under duress and either uses his frame to protect the ball or play a short, safe pass.
Psych & Social
Oukili has mixed reactions to his team losing possession. If he is in shape, Oukili is positive and works diligently to shield his defence. His long stride helps him in these situations to collect tackles and interceptions. He has a tendency to try a steal in front of his direct opponent. When Oukili is ahead of play he can struggle to run back the other way and can make lazy decisions and cheap fouls.
Any other business
Oukili takes on a multifaceted role on the pitch - Trying to influence play at both ends of the pitch. It’s unknown whether this is tactical instruction or a trait of Oukili’s game. Whilst his endeavour, energy and stamina is to be commended, Oukili will be better suited to a more diluted role where less ground is needed to be covered. Defensively he can get caught ahead of play which often leads to him giving away cheap fouls as he chases back into position. Offensively he could take up better positions by having a more advanced starting position and not having to cover as much ground.
Verdict
Key strengths
Physical specimen
Ball carrying over long distances
Multi-role suitable
Risks to mitigate
Limited passing range
Tendency to give away fouls
Needs to master a specific role
Current level recommendation
CH- - Lower range of Championship
Potential level recommendation
CH - Mid range of Championship